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A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.

“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.

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Additionally, a new remote betting duty is set to come in from April 2027, which will raise the effective tax rate on all sports betting products except horse racing from 15% to 25%.

Several other operators have responded to the UK tax hikes by announcing shop closures.

In March, William Hill told staff it plans to permanently close approximately 200 of its retail shops in the UK, around 15% of Evoke’s retail estate.

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With int he report Dr Matt Gaskell MBE observed that “overall exposure (including shirts, hoardings, logos, sponsorship and related marketing) during live sports programmes does not show that self-regulation has reduced exposure meaningfully”. 

Voluntary efforts have included Premier League football opting to ban front-of-shirt gambling sponsorships, as of the beginning of this current season. Although, branding remains on training kits, shirt sleeves and across stadium advertisements. 

The committee’s previous 2020 report had recommended banning gambling ads on team shirts, training kits, stadium advertising and broadcasts, although on-course advertising for horse and greyhound racing was exempt.